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Does a higher squeeze score predict price increases? Tested on 76,130 alerts (49,633 with outcome data).
2026-03-12 → 2026-03-24
| Score | Alerts | Win 4h | Avg 4h | Med 4h | Win 24h | Avg 24h | Med 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-19 | 3,749 | 32.0% | -9.0% | -0.4% | 34.4% | -5.2% | -3.0% |
| 20-39 | 15,016 | 35.7% | -8.3% | -0.3% | 39.9% | -3.2% | -2.3% |
| 40-59 | 28,833 | 36.9% | -6.8% | -1.0% | 36.0% | -3.9% | -4.6% |
| 60-79 | 2,035 | 34.5% | -9.6% | -3.5% | 34.7% | -9.2% | -9.8% |
| 80+ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Score | Alerts | Win 4h | Avg 4h | Med 4h | Win 24h | Avg 24h | Med 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 30 | 43,565 | 36.6% | -7.2% | -0.8% | 37.0% | -3.9% | -3.9% |
| ≥ 40 | 30,868 | 36.8% | -7.0% | -1.1% | 35.9% | -4.2% | -4.8% |
| ≥ 50 | 13,712 | 36.8% | -7.4% | -1.6% | 35.1% | -4.8% | -5.6% |
| ≥ 60 | 2,035 | 34.5% | -9.6% | -3.5% | 34.7% | -9.2% | -9.8% |
| ≥ 70 | 306 | 43.5% | -6.1% | -1.9% | 42.2% | -13.0% | -4.9% |
| ≥ 80 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Score | Alerts | Win 4h | Avg 4h | Med 4h | Win 24h | Avg 24h | Med 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-59 | 1,373 | 35.9% | -13.1% | -1.8% | 37.4% | -2.9% | -4.2% |
| 60-79 | 1,189 | 34.6% | -10.1% | -3.3% | 32.0% | -9.9% | -10.9% |
| 80+ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Score | Alerts | Win 4h | Avg 4h | Med 4h | Win 24h | Avg 24h | Med 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-19 | 3,202 | 32.2% | -6.9% | -0.1% | 36.3% | -2.7% | -2.2% |
| 20-39 | 4,833 | 35.7% | -8.0% | -0.1% | 40.4% | -2.8% | -1.6% |
| 40-59 | 11,076 | 37.9% | -5.6% | -1.1% | 34.8% | -3.3% | -4.8% |
| 60-79 | 305 | 37.0% | -8.6% | -3.4% | 44.3% | -3.9% | -3.0% |
| 80+ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Score | Alerts | Win 4h | Avg 4h | Med 4h | Win 24h | Avg 24h | Med 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-19 | 9 | 11.1% | -25.0% | -3.6% | 0.0% | -11.1% | -10.3% |
| 20-39 | 7,335 | 36.6% | -5.8% | -0.0% | 40.8% | -2.0% | -1.7% |
| 40-59 | 13,215 | 36.2% | -6.6% | -0.8% | 37.3% | -3.5% | -3.6% |
| 60-79 | 445 | 32.4% | -9.9% | -4.5% | 35.5% | -9.3% | -10.6% |
| 80+ | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Score | Alerts | Win 4h | Avg 4h | Med 4h | Win 24h | Avg 24h | Med 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-39 | 484 | 42.4% | -4.8% | -1.2% | 43.0% | -3.8% | -3.6% |
| 40-59 | 2,328 | 39.7% | -4.6% | -3.2% | 36.1% | -6.3% | -9.8% |
| Score | Alerts | Win 4h | Avg 4h | Med 4h | Win 24h | Avg 24h | Med 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-19 | 454 | 31.3% | -21.6% | -9.8% | 21.8% | -22.4% | -29.4% |
| 20-39 | 2,233 | 32.1% | -16.0% | -6.2% | 35.4% | -7.7% | -13.6% |
| 40-59 | 550 | 27.5% | -23.8% | -11.8% | 28.2% | -15.0% | -25.9% |
| 60-79 | 7 | 0.0% | -15.0% | -10.7% | 0.0% | -39.2% | -40.7% |
| Mint | Type | Score | +4h | +24h | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AxctaLp5…pump | squeeze | 62 | 229.7% | +273.4% | 2026-03-20 |
| AxctaLp5…pump | quiet_accum | 62 | 229.7% | +273.4% | 2026-03-20 |
| AxctaLp5…pump | squeeze | 62 | -5.6% | +260.3% | 2026-03-20 |
| AxctaLp5…pump | quiet_accum | 62 | -5.6% | +260.3% | 2026-03-20 |
| FvLHiKeQ…4NHE | squeeze | 63 | 266.9% | +255.7% | 2026-03-19 |
| FvLHiKeQ…4NHE | sss | 63 | 266.9% | +255.7% | 2026-03-19 |
| AxctaLp5…pump | squeeze | 62 | -6.9% | +218.1% | 2026-03-20 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | squeeze | 60 | 46.3% | +155.2% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | squeeze | 60 | 38.5% | +146.9% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | holder_spike | 60 | 38.5% | +146.9% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | squeeze | 60 | 46.4% | +138.9% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | holder_spike | 60 | 46.4% | +138.9% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | squeeze | 60 | 41.4% | +137.4% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | holder_spike | 60 | 41.4% | +137.4% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | squeeze | 60 | 1.0% | +133.0% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | squeeze | 60 | -5.8% | +124.1% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | squeeze | 60 | -3.9% | +103.1% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | holder_spike | 60 | -3.9% | +103.1% | 2026-03-19 |
| kMKX8hBa…pump | squeeze | 64 | 99.5% | +99.8% | 2026-03-17 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | squeeze | 60 | -7.0% | +99.1% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | holder_spike | 60 | -7.0% | +99.1% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | squeeze | 60 | 0.5% | +97.5% | 2026-03-19 |
| 8G5ayEsJ…pump | holder_spike | 60 | 0.5% | +97.5% | 2026-03-19 |
| CNEq4Nnv…pump | squeeze | 60 | 30.5% | +94.9% | 2026-03-19 |
| CNEq4Nnv…pump | squeeze | 65 | 43.2% | +93.7% | 2026-03-19 |
This backtest runs every alert through forward price windows at +4h and +24h. Win rate = % of alerts where price was higher at the horizon. Avg/median returns are raw percentage moves (not risk-adjusted).
Key questions to check: Does win rate increase with higher scores? Does avg/median return improve? If the 80+ bucket meaningfully outperforms 0-19, the score has predictive value.
Sample period: 2026-03-12 to 2026-03-24. Results depend heavily on market regime and token universe. Past performance does not predict future results.